市场动向(节选)

尹莹
尹莹

发布于2019-05-05 10:44来源:原创 2 评论 9 点赞

Market Actions: What’s Next?
市场动向:路在何方?

The recent market actions are consistent with improving global growth. Chart 8 shows that the recent bond market weakness has been led by a resurgence in real bond yields, while inflation expectations have stayed largely stable, at around 2.1%.
近期的市场动向与提高全球经济增长政策保持一致。图表8显示,近期债券市场疲软由实际债券收益率回升导致,通胀预期基本保持稳定,在2.1%左右。

In the meantime, the dollar tried to break out to new highs back in August but failed. Since then, the DXY has slid by about 3%. If the weakening trend in the dollar is sustained, it could signal that the growth profile for the rest of the world is improving.
与此同时,八月份美元试图突破新高未果。美元指数(DXY)自此下滑约3%。如果美元疲软的趋势持续,则可能预示着世界其他地区的增长前景正在改善。

Obviously, uncertainty abounds when making a forecast for market actions because there are a variety of possible outcomes, each with different market implications over the next 6 to 10 months.
显然,由于存在多种可能性结果,且在各种可能性结果中未来6-10个月中的市场影响均不相同,因此预测市场动向时存在大量不确定性。

For example, should the economic boom in theU.S.persist whileChina’s economy starts to turn around and begins accelerating, global bond yields would rise, the dollar may be stuck in a narrow range, but emerging markets should recover, and commodities should continue to advance.
例如,如果中国经济开始转暖并加速,美国经济继续繁荣,则全球债券收益率将上升,美元窄幅徘徊,与此同时新兴市场应该会复苏,大宗商品也会继续上涨。

It is hard to know whether or not EM would outperformU.S.stocks in this scenario, but the former may have the edge over the latter from a valuation viewpoint.
在这种情况下,很难知道新兴市场是否能超益美国股市,但从估值角度来看,前者或优于后者。

However, if the U.S. economic boom crests and growth softens to around 2%-2.5%, but the Chinese economy turns around and begins to accelerate on fresh policy stimulus, Treasury bond yields should stay more or less flat, probably at around 3%, while the dollar should weaken.
然而,如果美国经济到顶,经济增长放缓至2%-2.5%左右,但中国经济转暖并开始加速新政策刺激,国债收益率应该会增加或与之前持平,稳定在3%左右,与此同时美元走弱。

In this case, both EM stocks and commodities will likely outshine the S&P 500, but the bull market inU.S.equities would be preserved by a weaker dollar and steady interest rates. Historically, a "soft landing" for the economy has been bullish for stock prices.
在这种情况下,新兴市场股市和大宗商品均可能超过标普500指数,但美元走弱和利息趋稳也会继续维持美国股市繁荣。历史上看,经济“软着陆”对股价有利。

Finally, if theU.S.economic boom turns into a bust or a recession, bonds would soar, stocks would tank, and the dollar would be strong. No equity market would do well, but the worst performers would be markets with high beta. In this case, commodity prices would retest their old lows and even fall to new lows.
最后,如果美国经济繁荣消失或衰退,债券价值将飙升,股市暴跌,美元走强。届时股市将无一幸免,尤其是高贝塔值市场将损失惨重。在这种情况下,大宗商品股价将重回历史低点,甚至跌至新低。

There are many recession indicators, and some are more reliable than others. Most of these indicators suggest low odds of a recession happening in the next 12 months, except one that is based on the Treasury yield curve and unemployment rate (Chart 9). This recession gauge is rising, due primarily to the flattening yield curve and very low unemployment rate.
市场上经济衰退指标众多,部分更可靠一些。多数指标表明未来12个月发生经济衰退的可能性很小,仅有一个基于国债收益率曲线和失业率的指标与此背离(图表9)。该衰退指标不断上升,扁平化收益率曲线和低失业率是主因。

Nevertheless, this indicator may ignore the impact of some structural changes. For example, a secular drop in the term premium and/or a structural fall in NAIRU would lead to a major downward revision for this recession gauge.
然而,该指标可能会忽略某些结构变化的影响。例如,国债期限溢价长期下跌和/或非加速性失业增长率(NAIRU)结构性下滑可导致该衰退指数出现重大下调。

Regardless, we view the risk of recession in the next 12 months as a tail risk, so the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of the first two possible outcomes. Moreover, with the stimulative impact of tax cuts fully spent and the restrictive effect of higher rates kicking in, theU.S.economy should soften a notch. If so:
无论如何,我们将未来12个月的经济衰退风险视为尾部风险,前两种结果出现的几率是压倒性的。此外,随着减税的刺激作用消耗殆尽和高利率开始发挥限制作用,美国经济增长应该会有所放缓。如果真是这样,则:

 

•  The dollar could start to weaken on the prospect of improving economic growth in the rest of the world.
由于世界其他地区经济增长前景改善,美元可能开始走弱。

•  Emerging markets should soon reach a bottom, followed by a rebound relative to theU.S.equity index.
新兴市场很快会触底,随后相对美国股指出现反弹。

•  U.S. bond yields have limited upside. The market is already crowded with short positions and sentiment is negative (Chart 10).
美国债券收益率上行空间有限。市场被空头挤占,情绪消极(图表10)。

•  The trend for commodity prices would be bullish, particularly for oil.
大宗商品股价看涨,尤其是油价。

In short, investors need to add rather than liquidate EM stocks, buy commodities and slightly underweight duration for bonds.
简而言之,投资者需增持而非变现新兴市场股票,买入大宗商品,并轻微缩短债券持有期限。


相关标签:

  • 市场
  • 收益率

发布你的看法